Senior officials have expressed concern regarding the potential economic impact of a federal government shutdown without a defined end. A White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) memo, as reported by Politico, estimated a weekly loss of $15 billion in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) if the shutdown extends. For a month-long duration, the memo projected an additional 43,000 unemployed workers and a $30 billion reduction in consumer spending. The CEA indicated that such a shutdown could lead to lower economic growth, higher unemployment, and disruptions to essential services including Social Security, air travel, and nutritional support, with effects intensifying over time.
An analysis by EY Parthenon noted that while some economic damage might be mitigated by backpay for furloughed employees and a rebound in activity post-reopening, there could still be lasting effects on financial markets and private sector confidence. The analysis also underscored the critical concern of delayed key economic data releases, which could hinder the decision-making processes for Federal Reserve policymakers, investors, and business leaders. Historically, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the 35-day partial government shutdown from December 2018 to January 2019 cost the U.S. economy at least $11 billion, including a permanent $3 billion loss.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/02/government-shutdown-cost-economy-billions